The Formula — EV in 30 Seconds
EV = (win chance × amount won) − (lose chance × amount lost)
If EV is positive — the decision profits over time. If negative — it loses. That simple.
EV — Expected Value in Poker
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical estimate of profit or loss for a given decision, over the thousands of times it will be made. A good player doesn't ask "did I win or lose this hand?" — they ask "was my decision +EV or −EV?". This guide gives you the tools to start thinking in EV terms today.
- The basic EV formula — simple despite looking complex
- Numerical examples: All-in, Call with Draw, Bluff
- The difference between short-term results and true EV
- How to quickly estimate EV at the table
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Example 1: Preflop All-in
You have AKs. Opponent shoves 100. You estimate they go with QQ+ and AK — a range giving you 43% equity. Pot already has 20 blinds.
EV = (0.43 × 220) − (0.57 × 100) = 94.6 − 57 = +37.6. Positive — call.
Example 2: Call with Flush Draw
Pot 100. Opponent bets 50 on flop. You have Flush Draw (9 outs, ~35% to hit by river).
EV = (0.35 × 150) − (0.65 × 50) = 52.5 − 32.5 = +20. Positive — stay in.
Critical Difference: Short-Term Result ≠ EV
You could shove +EV with 80% equity and lose. Happens 20% of the time. Doesn\'t mean the decision was wrong — it was the best possible.
A good player judges themselves by decision quality, not short-term results. After 10,000 hands, EV converges with actual profit.
How to Think EV Fast at the Table
- Estimate rough equity: 60/40? 50/50? 30/70?
- Compute pot odds ratio: how much am I investing vs pot?
- Compare: if your equity exceeds your investment share — it\'s +EV.
- If unclear — fold. Neutral EV isn\'t worth variance risk.
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